Episode Summary
In this jam-packed episode of Keeping It Real Estate, host Daniel Fink sits down with Neal Bawa to unpack the complex (and constantly shifting) world of multifamily real estate investing. Neal, known for his no-nonsense, data-rich insights, dives into how macroeconomic forces—like tariffs and interest rates—are directly impacting deal-making and investor decisions in 2025.
Neal lays out how supply dynamics, Class A opportunities, and the looming presence of distressed assets are creating an unusual mix of risk and reward. You’ll walk away with not just market predictions, but a grounded perspective on how to respond. Whether you’re actively investing or watching from the sidelines, this conversation will reframe how you think about real estate in today’s economy.
Key Takeaways
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Prices Are Down—But the Story’s Not That Simple: Multifamily asset values have dropped roughly 20% from their peak, but outcomes vary wildly depending on regional supply and construction trends.
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Tariffs May Create a Delayed Silver Lining: While initially inflationary, tariffs may ultimately boost rent growth by reducing future housing supply—especially around 2027.
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Don’t Ignore Class A Properties: Neal points out that high concessions in Class A buildings signal potential bargains, especially in oversupplied markets that are now cooling.
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Interest Rate Volatility Continues: With geopolitical uncertainty, rate cuts aren’t a sure thing. Investors need to prepare for a new “normal” in interest rates, one that may stick around longer than expected.
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Books Are Out. Webinars Are In: Neal emphasizes that in a fast-moving market, real-time education is essential. He favors webinars and online resources over books to stay current.
Chapters (Timestamp Summary)
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[00:00] – Intro and Neal’s latest market read
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[05:22] – Tariffs and their downstream effects on real estate
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[12:17] – How inflation and interest rate uncertainty are shaking up deals
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[19:45] – The surprising opportunity in Class A properties
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[28:10] – Supply curves and why they’re everything in 2025
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[35:50] – Neal’s education philosophy: why books are too slow
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[42:30] – Final thoughts and future-proof strategies
Notable Quotes
“I have never seen this in my lifetime and may never see it again…the cap rate curve inverted.”
“In two years, we should start to see costs go down for multifamily and start to see things get cheaper.”
“The current environment remains unquestionably a seller’s market with lower pricing.”
“Supply is the alpha factor, supply is the 800-pound gorilla in the room.”
“We’re in the new normal… people want more for their Treasuries, they’ve gotten used to making money on Treasuries.”
