See below to read the full video transcript.
We’re going to start off with the world and US economy outlook. Real estate is very highly dependent upon how the world economy and the US economy is doing. In the past it was just the US economy really, but today we live in one economy and the world economy impacts the U.S. a great deal, especially because when foreigners feel good about their economy and the amount of money that’s flowing into their pockets, they tend to send a significant portion of that money into the United States. One of the biggest buckets that receives that money is U.S. real estate. So understanding how the rest of the world is feeling as far as the investment climate is concerned is critical.
Then we’re going to move on to the impact of interest rates on housing sales. I think that by now everyone in the audience knows that the super low interest rate era is over. It is unquestionably over and rates are rising. They’ve already been rising so at this point as of today the 50 year or the 30 are fixed is now at 4.4% up from under 4% about six months ago. So we’re going to talk about the impact that’s going to have on your investments in 2018.
Then I’m going to talk about the trifecta. These are three factors that have a significant effect on real estate, jobs, inflation and then the unemployment rate. So these are factors that drive the prices.
Then I’m going to talk about the big trend of 2018, tax reform, and what impact it has on the housing market. Then I’m going to show you a table and this is going to be a few aha moments, especially for those of you that are from the San Francisco Bay Area. I know I have an audience all over the US today but for those of you that are in the Bay Area it’ll be interesting for you to see which cities are now priced higher than they were in 2006. That’s going to be an interesting area that I’m going to get lots of questions on.
Then I threw in something that really isn’t a trend. I think this is going to become a trend but it’s something cool, it’s something interesting. I wanted to talk about it so I put in the hq2 prediction for Amazon and where we think Amazon is likely to build its second headquarters.
Then I’m going to move to the shootout. This is the part of my presentation that people really want to see. it’s the best cities and the best states in the US for real estate in 2018. I’m going to provide seven different providers and I’m going to look at the similarities between their rankings because some providers I’m not even sure where the heck they pick this stuff out of. Some of them look like they picked it out of a hat so my goal always is to look at six or seven of them and look at the pattern between them to see which cities are consistently ranked as the best in the US.
Then at the end I’m going to pick a couple. I’m going to pick one in California I’m going to pick one outside of California and we’re going to talk about why it is that I think that those cities are going to over perform in 2018 and also in 2019 because this is really a 2019 pick, the 2018 picks are up here where you know all of the other providers that I’m going to show you today have already picked their cities. I’m really picking an early pick for 2019 so I’m excited about that and also a little terrified because I don’t know what people are going to say to me a year from now.