Jason and Neil Bawa discuss the state of the multifamily real estate market. Prices in the sector reached unsustainable levels, resulting in a 25% decline since the peak in early 2022. Neil outlines two scenarios for the future: one where the Federal Reserve cuts rates, leading to stabilization through rate caps and refinancing, and another where rates remain high, causing distress. In either scenario, the market is expected to recover by the first quarter of 2025, with investors and banks facing losses totaling around $50 billion in a trillion-dollar market.
1:22 The issues when investing in 17 metropolitan areas
4:13 Multifamily and the worst segment of commercial investing right now
8:49 “Survive till 25” and Bridge Loans and the “Jesus can’t save you” category
16:21 Average price and unit count of multifamily properties and entry-level housing
23:46 Bank collapse and the fear porn chart
30:58 Life insurance and pension plans