🎙️ Episode Summary
On Wealth Strategy Secrets of the Ultra Wealthy, Dave Wolcott sits down with Neal Bawa—the “Mad Scientist of Multifamily”—to map the real investing terrain for 2026. Neal cuts through media narratives with a framework grounded in supply pipelines, cap rate mechanics, occupancy trends, and financing realities. The core message: 2025 didn’t become the multifamily turnaround year the industry expected, and 2026 may be a transitional “gap year” shaped by slower new supply, shifting demand, and forced refinancings that may bring more distressed opportunities to market. Neal also expands the lens beyond real estate—connecting the next wave of market winners to AI infrastructure and energy constraints, and explaining why Bitcoin, gold, and silver function best as long-term insurance in an era of sovereign overspending.
🔑 Key Takeaways
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📉 Multifamily didn’t rebound in 2025.
Supply pressure kept rents flat to negative; 2026 shapes up as a transition year. -
🏠 Single-family held up, but cracks are forming.
Inventory is rising as the lock-in effect fades in overheated markets. -
⏳ 2026 is a “gap year.”
Stronger fundamentals may re-emerge in 2027–2029 as new supply collapses. -
🏦 Refinancing pressure is the real 2026 catalyst.
Forced sales will cap prices but create selective buying opportunities. -
🤖⚡ AI and energy are the hidden real-estate drivers.
Power constraints—especially nuclear—will shape winning markets. -
🧾 Tax efficiency beats cash flow right now.
Depreciation and OZ benefits remain strong; cash flow is challenged. -
🏖️ Airbnb margins are under pressure nationally.
Viable only in specific, high-demand pockets.
