Is Multifamily Finally Back After the Market Crash? ft. Neal Bawa

🎙️ Episode Summary

Neal Bawa returns to Investing In The US to break down what the last two-and-a-half years really taught the multifamily industry. The central takeaway is simple but critical: multifamily is not immune to the laws of money. Rising interest rates pushed values down, and recent rate cuts are now lifting values again—even as rent growth remains weak.

Neal and Reed unpack why the feared collapse never materialized, how banks used “extend and pretend” to stabilize the system, and why cap rate compression—not rent growth—has driven recent pricing gains. They also explain why the massive 2024 supply wave is fading and how shrinking new deliveries could set up tighter occupancy and renewed rent growth in many markets by late 2026.

📌 Key Takeaways

• Multifamily values rise and fall with interest rates, not hype.
• Syndication has shrunk, but operators today are more disciplined.
• Banks stabilized the market by spacing out distress instead of forcing a crash.
  Recent price increases are driven by cap rate compression, not rent growth.
• Supply peaked in 2024, setting up tighter occupancy and rent growth potential by late 2026.