Why U.S. Home Prices Refuse to Drop

🔍 Episode Summary:

In this insightful episode of the REI Mastermind Network, host Jack Haas is joined by data-driven multifamily real estate expert Neal Bawa to explore the surprising resilience of U.S. home prices amid economic shifts. With a sharp lens on data science and market dynamics, Bawa explains why housing prices refuse to drop despite affordability hitting historic lows. From the fallout of COVID-19 to the rise of a “renter nation,” the episode dives deep into the forces reshaping homeownership in America. Neal dissects how supply constraints, investor activity, and flawed infrastructure planning are driving a long-term transformation—and outlines how savvy investors can take advantage through multifamily opportunities, even in a high-interest environment.

Bawa emphasizes analyzing incoming supply, identifying markets with current high concessions but near-term supply declines, and relying on data instead of gut instinct. Whether you’re new to real estate or managing a portfolio, this episode offers a blueprint for how to strategically invest in today’s evolving housing market.

Key Takeaways:

🦠 COVID-19’s Impact on Housing Economics

Since 2020, mortgage payments have risen 116% while salaries grew only 20%, creating an affordability crisis that’s reshaping homeownership across generations.

🏘️ The Rise of the Renter Nation

A growing cohort of Americans—especially the middle class—may never own homes, pushing the U.S. toward a long-term renter society, much like Europe.

📈 Multifamily Over Single Family (for Now)

Multifamily properties have dropped 20–25% in price, offering better value than single-family homes in the current cycle—especially for investors seeking scale.

🔍 Invest Where Concessions Are High & Supply Is Shrinking

The best markets are those with current rent concessions and an abrupt decline in upcoming supply, allowing investors to buy low and benefit from rising rents in the next few years.

📊 Data Over Gut

Neal’s philosophy: “Data beats gut feel by a million miles.” Every investor should base decisions on metrics like job growth, rent trends, and—most critically—incoming supply.

Chapters

“We are now renter nation for the middle class… the chances of homeownership today are roughly one-tenth of what they were in 2005.”
— Neal Bawa

“Properly analyzing incoming supply should be your focus… you should look at markets with high concessions but an abrupt drop in supply.”
— Neal Bawa

“There’s just not enough supply. Whoever doesn’t need to sell is kicking the can down the road.”
— Neal Bawa

“Data beats gut feel by a million miles… if you believe that, you’ll fundamentally be better at your job regardless of what it is you’re doing.”
— Neal Bawa

“Being a landlord makes the most sense that it ever has—because the solutions we needed were never implemented.”
— Neal Bawa